I think you are hitting the nail on the head. The cheese is definitely moving. And webMethods has a lot of smart people and very good software. The ability to adapt to the new world is going to be key. It’s ironic that the very model of application development and architecture that has become the latest rage (SOA) also makes it very easy (in theory) to swap out and not depend on any one vendor. It seems to me that webMethods sees this. It appears that their primary focus is shifting away from their traditional core integration products and moving more towards ServiceNet. The ability to manage the services in this new SOA world is going to be key and they seem to be aligning around that.
As far as their licensing model goes… I think that will eventually have to change as will everyone else. That train is moving along pretty fast and I don’t believe it will stop. webMethod’s has a good strong customer base but they still have to grow. They will face increased competition from software that in a lot of cases is not as good but more attractive from a cost perspective to companies that are struggling with the bottom line. Of course this is my industry expert crystal ball opinion.